General Thoughts on Foreign Policy

1.      In the late 1990s following the fall of the Soviet Union, America was heralded as the world’s only super power.  Shortly after that President Bush 2, acting as if we no longer had to justify any military activity with the rest of the world, given our power, launched an invasion of Iraq ostensibly to prevent that country from using ‘weapons of mass destruction’.  This war eventually ended up costing one  trillion dollars.  This money could have remained in the United States where it should have been used to build up our economy and our infrastructure.  While we were burning money, China was investing in their technology and infrastructure.  Today Chinese technology and economic strength may out match ours.  It never should be forgotten that military strength follows economic strength.

2.      When the Soviet Union fell apart and East and West Germany reunited, I believe the Russians, Gorbachev in particular, had reassurances from the Reagan administration that NATO would not advance into the newly liberated East bloc countries.  But the temptation to fill the power void and the promise of arms sales to new NATO members soon, starting with the Clinton Administration if not earlier, had NATO in almost all the former East bloc countries.  Russia, to those with even the least knowledge of history, has a justifiable fear of invasion from the West.  The devastation of the second world war combined with the all-consuming national obsession with remembering the war and its heroes assures us that Russia will not be comfortable with any semblance of Western offensive arms on its borders.  But yet we are there.

In addition the United States government and media make a great deal of noise about the Russian takeover of the Crimea even though the area is ethnically Russian in the majority, traditionally part of Russia prior to Khrushchev, strategically imperative for the operation of their Black Sea fleet and well within their vital sphere of influence, much like Cuba is to us. 

Also, under the risible guise of rogue missile threats from Iran, the U.S.  withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in 2002.  We are now in the process of also withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty which opens the door to very dangerous, because of their proximity to each other, nuclear missiles in Europe.  We claim that the Russians have already violated the treaty, and that may be so, but it is more likely that the main reason for our withdrawal is that China has become a rival with a rapidly evolving military capability and we do not want to be hamstrung by old treaties.  The Russians have developed advanced weaponry quietly over the last 20 years, some of their missile technology may already be significantly more advanced than ours as was claimed by Vladimir Putin in a speech earlier this year.    The advanced ground to air missiles placed in Syria last year may mark a turning point in the U.S’s long standing unquestioned dominance of the skies.

The conflict with Russia seems contrived.  The outrage over the Ukraine, the sanctions, the withdrawal from arms limitation agreements, all could have been handled differently and I don’t think the Russians would be hostile to negotiated agreements or to reconciliation with the NATO nations as long as we conceded their interests as well as our own.  Russia might otherwise be our natural ally.  Russia has an interest in containing China whose power soon will be an order of magnitude greater than Russia’s and who may covet the vast regions to their north for room to expand and for their natural resources.  Russia also has an interest in containing radical Islam.  Russia itself is not Islamic but they are bordered to the south and west by Islamic nations and territories with all the disaffection to the West they are known for.

Israel

3.      I believe the United States should guarantee the existence of Israel and security from attacks or invasion.  I believe the Jews have a right to a homeland centered on Jerusalem.

But I do not believe that the interests of Israel and the interests of the United States are the same.  American leadership should not put the interests of Israel above that of the United States.  I have been in churches where the speaker has called out for support of Israel as if it was demanded by God. But to me this is treason.  Israel makes a concerted effort to influence American foreign policy and is extremely successful at it.  AIPAC is one of the most feared lobbying groups in the U.S.  

I thought Saddam Hussein was a threat to Israel before he invaded Kuwait and he was even a bigger threat after the invasion because now he had more territory, and more oil money to use to make good on the threats.  It seemed that the defense of Israel was a major factor in the first Iraq war, and I really had no problem with that at the time. 
But the second invasion of Iraq, the invasion of Syria, the attack on Khaddafi, in other words the destruction of the stable but anti-Israeli governments of Iraq and Libya, the attempted destruction of the Assad regime in Syria, and the constant war drums directed at Iran, all seem to be more in the interest of Israel than the United States.

Israel watches out for itself and would throw the U.S. under the proverbial bus as soon as it thought it was necessary.  Few people remember that the IDF attacked a U.S. naval ship in broad daylight during the 6 Days war in 1967 killing 34 sailors.  They claimed it was a mistake and it all was quickly covered up, but the truth is that it was deliberate and was meant to stop the US Navy from listening in to Israeli communications. 

4.      

China

In the nineteenth and twentieth century, the proud and accomplished Middle Kingdom was subjected to repeated humiliation and invasion from the Western colonial powers and from Japan.  When the communists took over in 1949 the nation withdrew into itself, purging itself seemingly of the very elements that made it a great nation in the first place.  The Chinese were natural capitalists and that nature could not be suppressed for long.  The country went from being weak, poor and backward to being the only real rival to the United States on the world stage.  Today we face a situation where China is surpassing us in every area: technology, infrastructure, economic size, organization and rising along with these elements, military strength.  China today does not have anything near the military power of the US but it is moving inexorably and deliberately in that direction.  They, unlike us, tended to their economy first and the military second.  It is only right that a capable and populous nation should come into the prosperity of the modern world.  It is also only right that they should take their place militarily among modern nations.  However this clashes with the American military’s stated aim of world dominance and un-challengeability.  Of course, the Chinese economy could crash, as all capitalist economies inevitably do following a boom cycle, that, however would not be the end, and the rest of the world would probably go down with it for a while.  China may also experience political and internal military threats to its existing government.  This also is not too likely as long as the government maintains a firm hand and the prospects of the majority continue to rise.  In a war between China and the US, the surface Navies would probably be rendered inoperable in a short time.  But the loss of one or more US aircraft carriers would be met with ferocity not seen since the Second World War.