1.
In the late
1990s following the fall of the Soviet Union, America was heralded as the
world’s only super power. Shortly after
that President Bush 2, acting as if we no longer had to justify any military
activity with the rest of the world, given our power, launched an invasion
of Iraq ostensibly to prevent that country from using ‘weapons of mass
destruction’. This war eventually ended
up costing one trillion dollars.
This money could have remained in the United States where it should have
been used to build up our economy and our infrastructure. While we were burning money, China was investing
in their technology and infrastructure. Today
Chinese technology and economic strength may out match ours. It never should be forgotten that military
strength follows economic strength.
2.
When the Soviet
Union fell apart and East and West Germany reunited, I believe the Russians,
Gorbachev in particular, had reassurances from the Reagan administration that
NATO would not advance into the newly liberated East bloc countries. But the temptation to fill the power void and
the promise of arms sales to new NATO members soon, starting with the Clinton
Administration if not earlier, had NATO in almost all the former East bloc
countries. Russia, to those with even
the least knowledge of history, has a justifiable fear of invasion from the
West. The devastation of the second
world war combined with the all-consuming national obsession with remembering
the war and its heroes assures us that Russia will not be comfortable with any
semblance of Western offensive arms on its borders. But yet we are there.
In addition
the United States government and media make a great deal of noise about the
Russian takeover of the Crimea even though the area is ethnically Russian in
the majority, traditionally part of Russia prior to Khrushchev, strategically
imperative for the operation of their Black Sea fleet and well within their
vital sphere of influence, much like Cuba is to us.
Also, under
the risible guise of rogue missile threats from Iran, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti Ballistic Missile
Treaty with Russia in 2002. We are now
in the process of also withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces
treaty which opens the door to very dangerous, because of their proximity to
each other, nuclear missiles in Europe.
We claim that the Russians have already violated the treaty, and that
may be so, but it is more likely that the main reason for our withdrawal is
that China has become a rival with a rapidly evolving military capability and
we do not want to be hamstrung by old treaties.
The Russians have developed advanced weaponry quietly over the last 20
years, some of their missile technology may already be significantly more
advanced than ours as was claimed by Vladimir Putin in a speech earlier this
year. The advanced ground to air
missiles placed in Syria last year may mark a turning point in the U.S’s long
standing unquestioned dominance of the skies.
The
conflict with Russia seems contrived.
The outrage over the Ukraine, the sanctions, the withdrawal from arms
limitation agreements, all could have been handled differently and I don’t
think the Russians would be hostile to negotiated agreements or to
reconciliation with the NATO nations as long as we conceded their interests as
well as our own. Russia might otherwise
be our natural ally. Russia has an
interest in containing China whose power soon will be an order of magnitude
greater than Russia’s and who may covet the vast regions to their north for
room to expand and for their natural resources.
Russia also has an interest in containing radical Islam. Russia itself is not Islamic but they are
bordered to the south and west by Islamic nations and territories with all the
disaffection to the West they are known for.
Israel
3.
I believe the
United States should guarantee the existence of Israel and security from
attacks or invasion. I believe the Jews
have a right to a homeland centered on Jerusalem.
But I do
not believe that the interests of Israel and the interests of the United States
are the same. American leadership should
not put the interests of Israel above that of the United States. I have been in churches where the speaker has
called out for support of Israel as if it was demanded by God. But to me this
is treason. Israel makes a concerted
effort to influence American foreign policy and is extremely successful at
it. AIPAC is one of the most feared
lobbying groups in the U.S.
I thought
Saddam Hussein was a threat to Israel before he invaded Kuwait and he was even
a bigger threat after the invasion because now he had more territory, and more
oil money to use to make good on the threats.
It seemed that the defense of Israel was a major factor in the first
Iraq war, and I really had no problem with that at the time.
But the second invasion of Iraq, the invasion of Syria, the attack on Khaddafi,
in other words the destruction of the stable but anti-Israeli governments of
Iraq and Libya, the attempted destruction of the Assad regime in Syria, and the
constant war drums directed at Iran, all seem to be more in the interest of
Israel than the United States.
Israel
watches out for itself and would throw the U.S. under the proverbial bus as
soon as it thought it was necessary.
Few people remember that the IDF attacked a U.S. naval ship in broad
daylight during the 6 Days war in 1967 killing 34 sailors. They claimed it was a mistake and it all was
quickly covered up, but the truth is that it was deliberate and was meant to
stop the US Navy from listening in to Israeli communications.
4.
China
In
the nineteenth and twentieth century, the proud and accomplished Middle Kingdom
was subjected to repeated humiliation and invasion from the Western colonial
powers and from Japan. When the
communists took over in 1949 the nation withdrew into itself, purging itself
seemingly of the very elements that made it a great nation in the first
place. The Chinese were natural
capitalists and that nature could not be suppressed for long. The country went from being weak, poor and
backward to being the only real rival to the United States on the world
stage. Today we face a situation where
China is surpassing us in every area: technology, infrastructure, economic
size, organization and rising along with these elements, military
strength. China today does not have
anything near the military power of the US but it is moving inexorably and
deliberately in that direction. They,
unlike us, tended to their economy first and the military second. It is only right that a capable and populous
nation should come into the prosperity of the modern world. It is also only right that they should take
their place militarily among modern nations.
However this clashes with the American military’s stated aim of world
dominance and un-challengeability. Of course,
the Chinese economy could crash, as all capitalist economies inevitably do following a boom cycle, that, however would not be the end, and the rest of the
world would probably go down with it for a while. China may also experience political and internal
military threats to its existing government.
This also is not too likely as long as the government maintains a firm
hand and the prospects of the majority continue to rise. In a war between China and the US, the
surface Navies would probably be rendered inoperable in a short time. But the loss of one or more US aircraft
carriers would be met with ferocity not seen since the Second World War.
